2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

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2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Azevo on Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:52 am

In the 21st of Feb 2011 edition of time magazine, Here is the article on the web:





It is an interview with Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey De Grey and their theories, thought it might be interest to some of you.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Prolite on Sat Feb 19, 2011 8:11 am

A lot of the things Ray Kurzweil says is true, but there' also a lot of things he says that's total nonsense. Saying that we're going to be immortal by 2045 is like saying the tooth fairy is going to be our personal body guard in the future. Want to know why he really says stuff like that? Because it makes him money, especially when he can create a movie out of it.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Azevo on Sat Feb 19, 2011 8:50 pm

The idea of immortality comes down to negligible senescence if we ever want to achieve a biological immortality, however, Kurzweil is talking about being able to upload our minds to computers and in that form our conscience is immortal.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby wjfox2009 on Sun Feb 20, 2011 2:38 pm

Prolite wrote:Saying that we're going to be immortal by 2045 is like saying the tooth fairy is going to be our personal body guard in the future.

Sorry, but that's a really bad comparison.

We know for a fact that the tooth fairy is completely imaginary. Kurzweil's predictions, however, are grounded in science and technology - real and tangible things like machines and biological processes.

I remain skeptical about his timing of the Singularity. However, I can see that it might be possible at some point, when technology is advancing rapidly enough, that mankind will suddenly acquire new abilities and foresight that would vastly exceed those of previous decades. This would be aided by the growth of AI. You have to remember also that today's technology (particularly in medicine) is increasingly based on information, which is growing exponentially with each passing year. By 2045, who knows what might be possible? I think the Singularity will probably occur some decades later, but I wouldn't rule out 2045 completely.

And btw - if you doubt that AI will ever happen, just look at IBM's "Watson" featured on Jeopardy this week.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Italian Ufo on Sun Feb 20, 2011 6:50 pm

I personally think that Immortality is a big world and it belongs maybe to the end of next century. What we might be able to do in this life is to increase life span thats about it.
And Even tho, you still may get into an accident someone will kill you,creash in the space etc..I think to avoid these types of death occurings we have to invent compiuters to be put under the skin, these compiuters will save your brain data and will be made almost of undestroyble matirial. Once you occur into the accident the microchip will send the info to a main a compiuter on earth and you ll be saved. But I think we are still far from that type of intention.

I predict 2035 pepole will start to talk about increasing life span
2050-2060 inceasing life span will become a reality but not for many
2080 bio-technology, renjunivating therapy becomes more affordable
2100 almost everybody will start to look young
after 2150 we might start to talk to transfer brain's memory from a body to another or for a body to a compiuter
the biggest challange in this is to try to ansewer the question that everybody will ask " ARe we just a copy? or our
identity is still preserved with tis method? Once we solve this question we might start to talk of immortality
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Prolite on Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:07 pm

wjfox2009 wrote:
Prolite wrote:Saying that we're going to be immortal by 2045 is like saying the tooth fairy is going to be our personal body guard in the future.

Sorry, but that's a really bad comparison.

We know for a fact that the tooth fairy is completely imaginary. Kurzweil's predictions, however, are grounded in science and technology - real and tangible things like machines and biological processes.

How is that a bad comparison? Uploading our *consciousness* to a machine by 2045 is so wildly optimistic that people living 200 years from now or even 500 years from now will be saying, "...still waiting for THAT to happen. At least we have flying cars, only 200 years too late". I'm not mocking this scenario, I'm just simply pointing out reality from science fiction. The tooth fairy is imaginary, quite obviously. The 2045 mind uploading thing is science fiction to the extreme. Perhaps a Type II civilization might be able to do this, but that's considering they haven't already became immortal by some of other fanciful means.

wjfox2009 wrote:I remain skeptical about his timing of the Singularity. However, I can see that it might be possible at some point, when technology is advancing rapidly enough, that mankind will suddenly acquire new abilities and foresight that would vastly exceed those of previous decades. This would be aided by the growth of AI. You have to remember also that today's technology (particularly in medicine) is increasingly based on information, which is growing exponentially with each passing year. By 2045, who knows what might be possible? I think the Singularity will probably occur some decades later, but I wouldn't rule out 2045 completely.

And btw - if you doubt that AI will ever happen, just look at IBM's "Watson" featured on Jeopardy this week.


In regards to IBM's Watson - - perhaps I must admit that my search engine timeline was a little conservative for an AI search engine. I predicted by 2050 we'll have a super-charged IBM Watson artificial intelligent search engine. It looks like it's going to be by 2030-2040. So I was 10 years off, big deal. For the Singularity to happen by 2045, humanity would have to have delivered to it some handful of super geniuses all at the same time, if you will. Such geniuses as Einstein, Archimedes, Leonardo Da Vinci, Stephen Hawkings, and the guys who invented the Memristor: Leon Chua and R. Stanley Williams who works for HP. Based on the past, we get only ONE of these geniuses once every couple hundred years, not all 5-6 at the same time. Einstein was a brilliant physicist and mathematician. Archimedes was the most brilliant mathematical mind that ever existed. Leonardo was one of the most brilliant engineer, artist, and inventor that ever existed. Stephen Hawking: brilliant physicist and mathematician. And the memristor, well, computers and non-volatile memory.The POINT I"m getting to is that the timing of the Singularity is wildly optimistic. The possibility of it happening by 2045 is minuscule. However, the Singularity could happen by 2080 or 2090, but even THAT I think might be optimistic. I personally think mankind will have to wait until the 22nd century for the Singularity to occur.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby wjfox2009 on Sun Feb 20, 2011 9:29 pm

Prolite wrote:
How is that a bad comparison? Uploading our *consciousness* to a machine by 2045 is so wildly optimistic that people living 200 years from now or even 500 years from now will be saying, "...still waiting for THAT to happen. At least we have flying cars, only 200 years too late". I'm not mocking this scenario, I'm just simply pointing out reality from science fiction. The tooth fairy is imaginary, quite obviously. The 2045 mind uploading thing is science fiction to the extreme. Perhaps a Type II civilization might be able to do this, but that's considering they haven't already became immortal by some of other fanciful means.


The brain is less complicated than you might think. We can quantify the number of neurons and synapses etc. and based on current trends, there will be super-computers that can simulate the entire brain by 2025-2030. After that, it will be a question of developing the nanotechnology and related fields to actually transfer consciousness into an entirely new substrate - which given our abilities with microchips and storage devices, may well be achieved as early as 2045, as Kurzweil predicts, especially when you factor in the billionfold improvement in AI by that time.

I personally think it will happen later - but like I said, I wouldn't rule out 2045 completely. Having read Kurzweil's book, I don't consider it "science fiction", he does make an excellent case which is backed up with many trends and diagrams, even if they are optimistic.

Once again, the brain isn't as complicated as you seem to claim. We will build super-computers by 2045 that will be far more complex and efficient than our (relatively limited) biological human brains.


Prolite wrote:The possibility of it happening by 2045 is minuscule.

Okay then, so you admit it's at least possible.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Prolite on Mon Feb 21, 2011 8:14 am

wjfox2009 wrote:
Prolite wrote:
Prolite wrote:The possibility of it happening by 2045 is minuscule.

Okay then, so you admit it's at least possible.


No, definitely not. I was making reference to the Singularity, no mind uploading. Mind uploading to me is just pure science fiction and will probably remain so for hundreds of years, if not a thousand years.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby wjfox2009 on Mon Feb 21, 2011 10:05 am

Prolite wrote:
No, definitely not. I was making reference to the Singularity, no mind uploading. Mind uploading to me is just pure science fiction and will probably remain so for hundreds of years, if not a thousand years.

But mind uploading would surely follow the Singularity within a very short timeframe?

The whole point of the "Singularity" is that technology will accelerate very, very, very quickly. Please explain why would it take hundreds or thousands of years?
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Postby Prolite on Mon Feb 21, 2011 10:43 pm

wjfox2009 wrote:
Prolite wrote:The whole point of the "Singularity" is that technology will accelerate very, very, very quickly. Please explain why would it take hundreds or thousands of years?

I don't define the Singularity the same way futurists do; at least not the CAUSE, or that which is being predicated. I don't think we'll have strong A.I. during this century. I think we'll be pretty close by the end of this century, but certainly not by 2045. I'm thinking more like years 2130-2150 for the Singularity to occur, at least in terms of Ray Kurzweil's reality (except for the mind uploading). In my own thinking, the Singularity would transpire from some sort of brain input device that multiplies our intelligence, or at least our ability to recall data, and works similar to the Internet but connected by thought as well. But in my own idea of what the Singularity might be, it certainly wouldn't be an event that creates technology at such astronomical levels that Kurzweil describes. The Singularlity would be an event to which a certain invention or multitude of invention brings about answers and solutions to problems at a rate to which the economy, consumers, and society can not keep up with, but not necessarily leap-frogging us into a Type II Civilization in a blink of an eye. Remember, humans STILL have to understand the innovations and creations of the output of strong AI, and then that has to follow a typical business product life-cycle to fit into the broader economy. You must consider a MACRO outlook on ideas and how they are disseminated throughout society. I guess to answer your question about mind uploading instead of just beating around the bush, I don't really know why I think that mind uploading is impossible for this millennium. I guess it's because no one has a clue as to what self-awareness is, or what it means in terms of a science. Just because we know about something and much of it's details, doesn't make us omnipotent to that subject. In fact, we're not omnipotent to ANYTHING in this world. After all, we're only human.
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