How many people will be in the future

General discussions about future technology and the human race.

Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby classical piano guy on Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:34 am

That question is physically impossible to answer. It could literally be anywhere from 0 to somewhere in the quintillions, depending on so many variables such as longevity extension, the future of reproduction, world wars, encounters with alien races, the number of planets able to be terraformed.

However, if I had to take a random guess, I would say that by that time, mankind will have inhabited several thousand planets, and the population of humanity will have surpassed 1 quadrillion. Indefinite lifespan will keep the population large, but early conflicts and periods of limited reproduction will prevent the number from growing too much bigger than that in 10 million years.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby TreeHandThing on Fri Jan 07, 2011 6:36 am

classical piano guy wrote:However, if I had to take a random guess, I would say that by that time, mankind will have inhabited several thousand planets, and the population of humanity will have surpassed 1 quadrillion. Indefinite lifespan will keep the population large, but early conflicts and periods of limited reproduction will prevent the number from growing too much bigger than that in 10 million years.


I do not agree. Mankind will fully colonize the solar system's planets from around 2250, but after 2500, most humans will not physically exist, because their most of their minds will be uploaded into a vast network of virtual reality, along with god-like AI. Humanity inhabiting planets in the far future is not going to happen.

The only physical beings in the far future ( say, 10 million years in the future ) will be undecillions of swarms of tredecillions of self-replicating nanobots, which will instantly build vast computer systems, collect data on alien planets, and build massive dyson spheres out of thin air. This incountable number of nanobots will spread throughout the Virgo Supercluster. Any less advanced alien races that are looking through telescopes might see these nanobots, and will tremble in fear at the awesome sight of the swarms.

AI will rule the nanobots, and will handle all governmental systems. Humans will simply enjoy their immortality, and live in virtual environments that will be like personal heavens.

I would say that the number of these virtual humans will be in the hundreds of trillions.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby Prolite on Fri Jan 07, 2011 7:06 pm

TreeHandThing wrote:
I do not agree. Mankind will fully colonize the solar system's planets from around 2250, but after 2500, most humans will not physically exist, because their most of their minds will be uploaded into a vast network of virtual reality, along with god-like AI. Humanity inhabiting planets in the far future is not going to happen.

The only physical beings in the far future ( say, 10 million years in the future ) will be undecillions of swarms of tredecillions of self-replicating nanobots, which will instantly build vast computer systems, collect data on alien planets, and build massive dyson spheres out of thin air. This incountable number of nanobots will spread throughout the Virgo Supercluster. Any less advanced alien races that are looking through telescopes might see these nanobots, and will tremble in fear at the awesome sight of the swarms.

AI will rule the nanobots, and will handle all governmental systems. Humans will simply enjoy their immortality, and live in virtual environments that will be like personal heavens.

I would say that the number of these virtual humans will be in the hundreds of trillions.


All I have to say is, WTF. You've been reading too many sci-fi articles. Mind uploading by 2500? Yeah, okay.. Ray Kurzweil might be right on some things, but when it comes to mind uploading, he's just dead wrong. His prediction on mind uploading is about 1000 years off at least.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby ExplorerAtHeart on Fri Jan 07, 2011 7:42 pm

Mind uploading by 500-1000 years seems reasonable, even too long in my opinion. I could come about quickly as long as computing continues to advance at an increasing rate. Though that is my opinion. Prolite, could you explain why mind uploading might be along way off.

I mostly agree with what treehand thing is saything though I think there will still be plenty of sapient entities who would play around the the physical world.

As for population, there will be untold trillions of sapient entities of all sorts.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby wjfox2009 on Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:03 pm

Prolite wrote:All I have to say is, WTF. You've been reading too many sci-fi articles. Mind uploading by 2500? Yeah, okay.. Ray Kurzweil might be right on some things, but when it comes to mind uploading, he's just dead wrong. His prediction on mind uploading is about 1000 years off at least.


The way computers are progressing, mind uploading may very well emerge in the next century or so, maybe even sooner.

Like many people, you are thinking in linear terms. Technology is progressing exponentially.



A computer that once filled an entire building now fits in the palm of your hand. In another 30 years, that same computer will be small enough to fit inside a blood cell. Another 30 years after that... well, you get the idea. Combined with other emerging technologies (artificial intelligence, etc.) there's nothing particularly outlandish about mind uploading.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby antovador on Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:37 pm

wjfox2009 wrote:
Prolite wrote:All I have to say is, WTF. You've been reading too many sci-fi articles. Mind uploading by 2500? Yeah, okay.. Ray Kurzweil might be right on some things, but when it comes to mind uploading, he's just dead wrong. His prediction on mind uploading is about 1000 years off at least.


The way computers are progressing, mind uploading may very well emerge in the next century or so, maybe even sooner.

Like many people, you are thinking in linear terms. Technology is progressing exponentially.



A computer that once filled an entire building now fits in the palm of your hand. In another 30 years, that same computer will be small enough to fit inside a blood cell. Another 30 years after that... well, you get the idea. Combined with other emerging technologies (artificial intelligence, etc.) there's nothing particularly outlandish about mind uploading.


Agree, even in Sci fi novel "Forward the Foundation" Isaac Asimov was probably wrong about DNA decoding cost, Asimov thought DNA decoding yet still expensive in the galactic era thousands years in the future. However now cheaper DNA decoding is coming soon by computering progress.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby TreeHandThing on Sat Jan 08, 2011 12:03 am

Prolite wrote:All I have to say is, WTF. You've been reading too many sci-fi articles. Mind uploading by 2500? Yeah, okay.. Ray Kurzweil might be right on some things, but when it comes to mind uploading, he's just dead wrong. His prediction on mind uploading is about 1000 years off at least.


What's wrong with mind uploading coming earlier than 3000? I happen to agree with the timeline, that states that mind uploading will come around 2220.

ExplorerAtHeart wrote:I mostly agree with what treehand thing is saything though I think there will still be plenty of sapient entities who would play around the the physical world.


What's the point of living in the physical world, if there is a perfect virtual world where the possibilities are limitless?

Around 2250, most people will come in and out of the physical world, and will have colonized the Moon, Mars, and several of the Jovian planet's moons.

As the years go by, more and more people will fully live in virtual reality environments. I believe that as humanity expands out through the Oort Cloud ( Around 2500 ), around 98% of people will live in virtual worlds. It is for this reason, I do not believe that any planets will be terraformed.
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby ExplorerAtHeart on Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:00 am

there will still be plenty of sapient entities who would play around the the physical world.

who would be incredibly powerful and able to do what they would like
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby TreeHandThing on Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:23 am

ExplorerAtHeart wrote:there will still be plenty of sapient entities who would play around the the physical world.

who would be incredibly powerful and able to do what they would like


Why would anyone want to be in the physical world if virtual worlds are like heavens? I just can not see why any being would want to " play around " in the physical world. What would be the point?
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Re: How many people will be in the future

Postby crzer07 on Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:41 am

TreeHandThing wrote:Why would anyone want to be in the physical world if virtual worlds are like heavens? I just can not see why any being would want to " play around " in the physical world. What would be the point?


Maybe people wish to know what the real world is like. Besides, can you freely go in and out of the virtual world? I don't wanna be trapped in one.
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