US invasion of Venezuela

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US invasion of Venezuela

Postby wjfox2009 on Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:59 am

US invasion of Venezuela: does this seem plausible/likely?

Given what we know about Peak Oil, I think it's very possible.

The question is, when would it happen, and what sort of pretext would the US need in order to do it?


Venezuela Says Oil Reserves Surpass Saudi Arabia's

16 Jan 2011

Venezuela has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world leader in oil reserves with certified deposits leaping to 297 billion barrels at the end of 2010, President Hugo Chavez's government said Saturday. Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told Reuters that the new reserves, which pushed the total 41 percent higher than the previous year, were booked in the South American OPEC member's vast Orinoco extra heavy crude belt. A jubilant Chavez told parliament that Venezuela's reserves now surpassed those of Saudi Arabia.

"We have enough for 200 years," the former soldier said in a speech in which he denied he was a dictator, complained that he was being unfairly "demonized" and offered to give up much-criticized decree powers a year ahead of schedule. There are suggestions that countries, including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, have exaggerated their oil reserves in the past, though the producers deny doing so.

Some analysts point out that some OPEC members' reserves figures have not changed in years, suggesting new discoveries had exactly matched output, while others say the lack of independent verification gave rise to doubts. OPEC said that Saudi Arabia's reserves stood at 265 billion barrels in 2009.

Full story:
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby Italian Ufo on Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:11 pm

I lived in Venezuela for 8 month with my family when I was 15 in Coro the State of Falcon. An invasion is not likely to happen. Many of the oil reserves in Venezuela are owned already by Americans. Thats why Americans are not always well seen down there. The call them the " Gringos" to indicate that they take away their material resources. Same it was with dymonds. Many mines are owned by Americans and Italians as well by the way.
Saying this, it dosent mean that there are no more material intersests downthere as many oil reserves are "nationalized" and not of American property.
But I dont see this administration or any other in the near future attacking Chavez for these reasons directly or inderectly especially after the US floose of credibility at the international level for the war in Iraq.
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby truthiness on Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:59 pm

I could see this happening, absolutely. Take a casual look at American military ventures during our history. America has had troops in every independent country south of us at one time or another. Push gas prices north of $5.00 per gallon on average during an election year, and assume that our forces are no longer in Afghanistan or Iraq in large numbers, and elect a hawkish president waving the Monroe Doctrine around to claim that Venezuela is within our sphere of influence, and requires our "protection" from greedy imperialist Chinese or Europeans (or some other such nonsense), and I could easily see the pieces sliding into place. Venezuela is already considered a "rogue state" if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps they could be connected with terrorism, or with dealing with Iran as Iran becomes nuclear capable. There are any number of scenarios that all point in this direction.

On the other hand, does Venezuela actually possess as much oil as the Saudis? I'm not so sure about that one...
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby antovador on Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:30 am

An US invasion of Venezuela will probably not be acepted by the rest of Latinamerican countries attached by their independance, especially the emerging power Brazil which consider an US presence in South America provocative and a violation of his sphere of influence.

Remember the Colombian US base episode a couple of years ago.
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby Italian Ufo on Wed Jan 19, 2011 2:59 am

If America will do this, it will loose credibility as super power. it means that we wont have guidelines anymore or we will shift from one center of power in implementing globl policy to many. in a way is already happening. look at France and Germany in not taking part to the war in Iraq.
it wont happen
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby Azevo on Wed Jan 19, 2011 3:29 am

it depends if they can orchestrate an overthrow of power to a leader who is more compassionate to the U.S leadership. I doubt their economic hit-men would be able to convince Hugo Chavez of allowing U.S companies in to drill for oil.
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby calvar on Thu May 12, 2011 8:39 pm

A mechanism by which the US (along with NATO) could invade Venezuela would be by dragging Chavez to an International Armed Conflict (IAC). I will expose one way I think they can do that is, but first a short background:

Colombia is a neighbor country to Venezuela, and in it there is a group of insurgents called the FARC. Back in 2008 the Colombian government of Alvaro Uribe with the now president Santos as defense minister killed Raul Reyes, one of the FARC's most important members, in Ecuadorian soil. In the raid they obtained information from Reyes' computers, which they said, contained information about the relations of the Chavez government (and others) with the FARC. At the moment Chavez denied he had any connections with this group, as they are labeled as terrorists in several countries (including the US of course). The relations between the two countries have been very weak ever since, though the new Colombian president Santos has approached his Venezuelan homologue somewhat.

The FARC are one of the most important organized groups of criminals in Colombia, along with their right wing counterparts, the AUC (which former president Uribe said he dismantled, but this is not very clear). Uribe has a personal grudge with the FARC as they killed his father and he has been very reluctant to do anything that helps this group to get an status of belligerence, so up to know they are seen as criminals (which they are) and there has not been any recognition from the part of any government that Colombia has a Non International Armed Conflict in Colombia (NIAC).

Recently a British think tank ( International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)) released a report in which they say the aid from Chavez to the FARC is real . At the same president Santos anounces he is goind to declare that Colombia has an NIAC with the FARC , and what is the importance of this official acknowledgement? well It seems that one way to transform a NIAC into an IAC is to prove that the non governmental part of the NIAC is acting on behalf of another goverment

So if by using the information extracted from Reyes' potentiated by the verification of the British IISS it can be said that the FARC have been acting with the goverment of Venezuela against Colombia then voila! we have an IAC and maybe an open door to foreign military intervention to get recognition for geting rid of yet another dictator, complete hold of the Venezuelan oil and at the same time deny this resource to the Chinese.
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Re: US invasion of Venezuela

Postby FireNail on Thu May 12, 2011 10:32 pm

Why would anyone want to invade Venezuela? We have more oil than they do right here in the U.S. I have an idea that involves less bloodshed: Let's allow domestic drilling. Sounds crazy, I know, but perhaps it could work. Perhaps if those darned oil companies could get at the oil sitting right under our noses, maybe we wouldn't have to import so much of it from the middle east Russia, and Venezuela.

I have an even better idea: Let's use our awesome technological might to build some sort of NUKULAR generators that, you know, produce massive amounts of clean energy by SPLITTING ATOMS. HOLY SHIZZ, WE'LL BE LIKE, GOD HIMSELF AMIRITE?

Who needs to burn this silly dead, decayed organic matter anyway?
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